Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 03

TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (VINTA) UPDATE NO. 03 Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Thursday 21 December 2017 Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Friday, 22 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) has maintained its intensity in the past 6 hours as it moves westward at a forward speed of 18 km/hr over the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea, near the coast of Eastern Mindanao. It expected to landfall along the Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area by tomorrow early morning (Dec 22) between 1-2 am.. Its western rainbands are currently affecting Eastern Mindanao. 24-hr Outlook: TS TEMBIN (VINTA) is expected to move westward at a speed of 19 km/hr, and will traverse the northern parts of Davao Oriental, Compostela Valley, Davao Del Norte, Bukidnon, and Western Misamis Oriental by tomorrow morning (Dec 22). This storm is likely to gain more strength before it makes landfall. Important Note: This storm is similar in track of STS WASHI (SENDONG) of December 16, 2011. Please take all necessary precautions and be on high alert for the potential floods and landslides this cyclone will generate. The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS TEMBIN (VINTA) – will bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao…becoming more frequent along Eastern Mindanao particularly Compostela Valley, Davao and Caraga Regions.
Where is TEMBIN (VINTA)?	As of 05:00 PM PhT today, December 21…0900 GMT. The center was located over the Northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea (near 8.5N 128.0E), about 191 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur or 249 km east of Bayugan City, Agusan Del Sur.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	It was moving West @ 18 kph, towards Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: Along the coasts of Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area by Friday early morning (between 1-2am), with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?	*Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):* >> CARAGA, Northern Davao Region, Eastern Visayas, and Eastern part of Northern Mindanao – Beginning today through Friday afternoon (Dec 22). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly intensifies as it traverses over the northern parts of Davao Oriental, Compostela Valley, Davao del Norte, Bukidnon, and Western Misamis Oriental…about 19 km southwest of El Salvador City, Misamis Oriental [2PM Dec 22: 8.4N 124.4E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the southwestern part of the Sulu Sea as a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) after traversing Zamboanga Peninsula…about 237 km south-southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 23: 7.9N 119.3E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Typhoon (TY) after traversing Southern Palawan and emerges over the West Philippine Sea, already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 506 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 24: 8.9N 114.3E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Distances	Time/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Thu December 21, 2017 Location of Center/Eye: Near 8.5º N Lat 128.0º E Lon Distance 1: 268 km ENE of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte Distance 2: 279 km ESE of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte Distance 3: 307 km ESE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte Distance 4: 319 km E of Malaybalay City, Bukidnon Distance 5: 1014 km SE of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information..

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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