Friday, December 22, 2017

Severe Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 05


Severe Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 05





Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 22 December 2017
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday, 22 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

TEMBIN (VINTA)  has rapidly intensified into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) and made landfall along the Surigao Del Sur-Davao Oriental Border at around 3am this morning…now traversing the northern part of Compostela Valley.  Its intense core is currently bringing strong winds and heavy torrential rains across the area.  

24-hr Outlook: STS TEMBIN (VINTA) is expected to continue moving westward at a forward speed of 24 km/hr across Bukidnon, Lanao, and Zamboanga Provinces today. By early Saturday  morning (Dec 23), TEMBIN (VINTA) shall emerge over western coast of Zamboanga Peninsula, with a weakened winds of 75 km/hr.

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and STS TEMBIN (VINTA) – will bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao.

Where is TEMBIN (VINTA)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 22…2100 GMT. The center was located over the northern part of Compostela Valley (near 7.9N 126.0E), about 10 km north-northwest of Monkayo, Compostela Valley or 47 km southwest of Bislig City, Surigao del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Southwest @ 22 kph, towards Bukidnon-Lanao-Zamboanga Provinces.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Currently Overland (in the vicinity of Northern Compostela Valley).
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern and Central Visayas, and Northern, Central, and Western Mindanao – Today through Saturday morning (Dec 22).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the west coast of Zamboanga Peninsula, in the vicinity of Southern Sulu Sea…weakens into a TS after interacting with the landmass of Mindanao…about 106 km northwest of Lamitan City, Basilan [2AM Dec 23: 7.4N 121.5E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Regains STS classification as approach the southern tip of Palawan…about 289 km south-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 24: 7.7N 117.5E @ 95kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon (TY) while passing to the south of the Kalayaan Island Group or over the southern part of West Philippine and South China Seas…already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 704 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 25: 8.3N 112.6E @ 120kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 470 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 40 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri December 22, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.9º N Lat 126.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 74 km NNE of Panabo City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 2: 95 km SSE of Bayugan City, Agusan Del Sur
Distance 3: 99 km ESE of Malaybalay City, Bukidnon
Distance 4: 127 km SSE of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 5: 917 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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