Saturday, December 16, 2017

Severe Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 10


Severe Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 10





Issued at: 12:45 PM PhT (04:45 GMT) Saturday, 16 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 16 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is now a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves closer to Northern and Eastern Samar.  The center is expected to make landfall over the Northern and Eastern Samar Border this afternoon.  Its intense rainbands continues to affect Eastern and Northern Visayas, Bicol Region and Southern Quezon.

24-hr Outlook: TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to turn west to west-southwestward at a forward speed of 14 km/hr and traverse the Southern part of Northern Samar and the Northern part of Eastern Samar and exit via the western part of Samar this afternoon, and shall weaken slightly as it emerges over the Sibuyan Sea later tonight.  The storm shall pass along the Southeastern Masbate by early Sunday morning (Dec 17), and shall be just along the Northeastern Coast of Iloilo before noon Sunday.

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Quezon Provinces, Mindoro, Romblon, Cuyo Islands, Northern Palawan, Marinduque, Visayas, and Northeastern sections of Mindanao.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 16…0300 GMT. The center was located near the northeastern coast of Samar Island (near 12.5N 125.8E), about 61 km east of Mapanas, Northern Samar or 107 km north-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West-Northwest @ 18 km/hr, towards Northern & Eastern Samar.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Northern and Eastern Samar Border this afternoon (approx. between 3-5 pm), with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Southern Quezon, Romblon, Marinduque, Eastern Visayas, Capiz, Antique, Northern Iloilo, Bicol Region, Northern sections of Cebu, and Dinagat Islands – Today through Sunday morning (Dec 17).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY MORNING: Approaching the Northeastern Coast of Northern Iloilo on a WSW track…loses strength after traversing the rugged terrains of  Samar and Masbate…about 69 km northeast of Sagay City, Negros Occidental [8AM Dec 17: 11.5N 123.4E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

MONDAY MORNING: Weakens further after interacting with the terrains of Panay Island while moving WSW…emerges over the Sulu Sea, approaching Northern Palawan…about 166 km east-northeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 18: 10.5N 120.2E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW..

TUESDAY MORNING: Emerges over the southern part of the West Philippine Sea after crossing Northern Palawan, as it heads towards the Kalayaan Island Group…about 210 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 19: 10.3N 116.9E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 550 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 575 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat December 16, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 12.5º N Lat 125.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 126 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 140 km ENE of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 3: 234 km ESE of Legazpi City, Albay 
Distance 4: 251 km ESE of Tabaco City, Albay
Distance 5: 562 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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