Sunday, December 17, 2017

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 15


Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 15


Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Sunday, 17 December 2017
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Monday, 18 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has slightly weakened in the past 6 hours as it moves westward at a speed of 20 km/hr near the eastern coast of Santa Fe, Romblon. It will landfall over the eastern coast of Northern Aklan tonight (Dec 17) between 7-8 PM. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures for possible flash floods, landslides, or lightning strikes. Its rainbands are currently affecting the Northern sections of Western Visayas, Southern Luzon, and MIMAROPA. 

24-hr Outlook: TD KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to slightly intensify as it moves west-southwestward at a forward speed of 19 km/hr over the West Philippine Sea. It will traverse over the landmass of Northern Aklan tonight (Dec 17) and Northern Palawan by Monday morning (Dec 18).

The combined effects of the surge of Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TD KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Northern, Eastern, and Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, and Western Visayas.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 05:00 PM PhT today, December 17…0900 GMT. The center was located near the eastern coast of Santa Fe, Romblon (near 12.1N 122.2E), about 85 km northwest of Roxas City, Capiz or 150 km west of Masbate City, Masbate
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West @ 20 km/hr, towards Northern Aklan-Cuyo Island-Northern Palawan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Northern Aklan tonight (approx. between 7-8pm), with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Northern, Eastern, and Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, and Western Visayas – Today through Monday afternoon (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly intensifies even after interacting with the landmass of Northern Aklan and Northern Palawan, over the West Philippine Sea…about 93 km north of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 18: 10.8N 118.7E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly weakens while over the West Philippine Sea, near the southwestern edge of Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 389 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 19: 9.3N 115.3E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) after exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), over the West Philippine Sea…about 749 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 20: 8.6N 112.1E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 455 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Sun December 17, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 12.1º N Lat 122.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 168 km NW of Victorias City, Negros Occidental
Distance 2: 178 km NNW of Silay  City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 181 km SE of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 4: 184 km SW of Ligao City, Albay
Distance 5: 302 km SSE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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