Thursday, December 21, 2017

Tropical Depression TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 01


Tropical Depression TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 01





Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 21 December 2017
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday, 21 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

The strong Tropical Disturbance 97W (VINTA) which has been organizing over the South Philippine Sea during the past 24 hours, has developed into a Tropical Depression (TD) and is now named globally as "TEMBIN", a Japanese word for a weighing device (Libra).  This system is now a threat to the whole Mindanao area particularly Davao Oriental and Caraga Area

24-hr Outlook: TD TEMBIN (VINTA) is expected to move westward with a decreased forward speed of 15 km/hr, and shall become a Tropical Storm today.  It shall be approaching the Eastern Coastal Areas of Davao Oriental and Surigao Del Sur by early Friday morning (Dec 22).

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TD TEMBIN (VINTA) – will bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas…becoming more frequent along Eastern Mindanao particularly Compostela Valley, Davao and Caraga Regions.

Where is TEMBIN (VINTA)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 21…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the Northern part of the South Philippine Sea (near 8.3N 130.5E), about 464 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur or 492 km east-northeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest @ 19 kph, towards Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the shorelines of Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area on Friday Morning, with a High  Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Caraga Region, Compostela Valley, Davao Oriental, Eastern Visayas – Beginning today through Friday (Dec 22).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it approaches the coastal areas of Northern Davao Oriental and Southern Surigao Del Sur on a westerly track…about 149 km east-southeast of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur [2AM Dec 22: 7.9N 127.6E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Remains a TS as it moves generally westward across Zamboanga Sibugay…about 75 km west-northwest of Zamboanga City, Zamboanga Del Sur [2AM Dec 23: 7.7N 122.5E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it traverses Southern Palawan…about 202 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 24: 8.5N 117.7E @ 110kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 610 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu December 21, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 8.3º N Lat 130.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 525 km E of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 2: 550 km E of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 3: 569 km ENE of Davao City, Davao Del Sur
Distance 4: 589 km E of Valencia City, Bukidnon
Distance 5: 1243 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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