Sunday, December 17, 2017

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 12


Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 12


Issued at: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Sunday, 17 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday, 17 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has slightly weakened as it interacts with the landmass of Eastern Samar and Northern sections of Samar. It moved southwestward at a speed of 9 km/hr over the northwestern section of Samar in the past 6 hours. Its rainbands continues to affect Quezon, Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Northern sections of Palawan, Bicol Region, and Visayas.

24-hr Outlook: TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to slightly weaken as it moves west-southwestward at a forward speed of 19 km/hr over the northern part of Sulu Sea. The weakening of the storm moving forward will be mainly due to numerous land interactions, specifically over Southern Masbate, Aklan, Capiz, and Northern Antique.

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Quezon, Mindoro, Romblon, Cuyo Islands, Northern Palawan, Marinduque, and the Visayas.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 11:00 PM PhT today, December 16…1500 GMT. The center was located along the Northwestern section of Samar (near 12.0N 124.9E), about 21 km north-northeast of Catbalogan City, Samar or 73 km northwest of Borongan  City, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center…Gustiness: 95 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Southwest @ 9 km/hr, towards Southern Masbate-Capiz-Aklan-Northern Antique Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Southern Tip of Masbate by Sunday early morning (approx. between 4-5 am), with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Bicol Region, Quezon, Mindoro, Romblon, Cuyo Islands, Northern Palawan, Marinduque, and the Visayas – Today through Sunday evening (Dec 17).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EVENING: Slightly weakens after it traversed the landmass of Southern Masbate, Aklan, Capiz, and Northern Antique, over the northern part of the Sulu Sea…about 147 km west of Paasi City, Iloilo [8PM Dec 17: 11.2N 121.3E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH.

MONDAY EVENING: Slightly intensifies as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea after making its landfall over Northern Palawan…about 208 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 18: 10.6N 117.0E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level MEDIUM.

TUESDAY EVENING: Slightly intensifies as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), over the West Philippine Sea…about 480 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 19: 9.1N 114.5E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 630 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat December 16, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 12.0º N Lat 124.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 111 km NNE of Ormoc City, Leyte
Distance 2: 146 km SE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 152 km ESE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 4: 192 km NNE of Danao City, Cebu
Distance 5: 505 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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