Monday, December 18, 2017

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 16


Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 16


Issued at: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Monday, 18 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 18 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has maintained its intensity in the past 6 hours as it moves southwestward at a forward speed of 22 km/hr over the northern part of the Sulu Sea. It is expected to landfall over the eastern coast of Northern Palawan by Monday morning (Dec 18) between 7-8 am. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures for possible flash floods, landslides, or lightning strikes. Its rainbands are currently affecting the Western sections of Western Visayas, Mindoro Province, Romblon, Cuyo Island, and Northern Palawan. 

24-hr Outlook: TD KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to slightly intensify as it moves west-southwestward at a speed of 23 km/hr over the West Philippine Sea. It will traverse over the landmass of Northern Palawan by Monday morning (Dec 18).

The combined effects of the surge of Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TD KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Northern, Eastern, and Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, and Western sections of Western Visayas.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 11:00 PM PhT today, December 17…1500 GMT. The center was located over the northern part of the Sulu Sea (near 11.4N 121.2E), about 133 km east-southeast of Coron, Palawan or 167 km west-northwest of Iloilo City, Iloilo
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Southwest @ 22 km/hr, towards Cuyo Island-Northern Palawan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Northern Palawan by Monday morning (Dec 18) (approx. between 7-8am), with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Northern, Eastern, and Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, and Western sections of Western Visayas – Today through Monday evening (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EVENING: Slightly intensifies even after interacting with the landmass of Northern Palawan, over the West Philippine Sea…about 196 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 18: 9.9N 117.0E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

TUESDAY EVENING: Slightly weakens as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), over the West Philippine Sea…about 512 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 19: 9.1N 114.2E @ 45kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 480 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun December 17, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 11.4º N Lat 121.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 211 km WNW of Talisay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 2: 214 km WNW of Victorias City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 218 km WNW of Silay  City, Negros Occidental
Distance 4: 225 km WNW of La Carlota  City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 353 km S of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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