Friday, October 20, 2017

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 09


Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 09





Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Friday 20 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 21 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) slowly intensfying as it continues to move on a general northerly track across the North Philippine Sea…expected to exit the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow evening (Oct 21).

24-hr Outlook: TY LAN (PAOLO) is forecast to intensify and move north-northeastward at a speed of 19 kph, across the northernmost part of the North Philippine Sea and over the sea south of Japan.

*Based on its current projected path, this typhoon will not directly affect any part of the country.

Meanwhile, the combined effects of the Monsoon Trough and Ex-Tropical Depression 26W, along side with the Southwesterly Windflow as enhanced by TY LAN (PAOLO) – will continue to bring light to moderate to at times extreme rain showers and thunderstorms over MiMaRoPa, Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Western Bicol.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 20…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.9N 130.1E), about 847 km east of Basco, Batanes or 905 km east-northeast of Aparri, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center…Gustiness: 190 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North @ 13 kph, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Category 4 Typhoon as it moves NNE across the northern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 986 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM Oct 21: 23.3N 131.1E @ 200kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,350 km (Large)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 180 km from center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri October 20, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.9º N Lat 130.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 867 km E of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 907 km ENE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 937 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 969 km ENE of Santiago City, Isabela
Distance 5: 1128 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.



No comments: