Friday, October 20, 2017

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 08


Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 08





Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Friday 20 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 20 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) moving northward across the southern part of the North Philippine Sea, with no change in strength…likely to moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this weekend.   

24-hr Outlook: TY LAN (PAOLO) is expected to intensify slightly as it moves northward towards the northern part of the North Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 16 kph.

*Based on its current projected path, this typhoon will not directly affect any part of the country.

Meanwhile, the combined effects of the Monsoon Trough and Ex-Tropical Depression 26W, along side with the Southwesterly Windflow as enhanced by TY LAN (PAOLO) – will continue to bring moderate to at times extreme rain showers and thunderstorms over MiMaRoPa, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bicol Region and Quezon.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 20…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the southern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.4N 130.0E), about 820 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela or 882 km east of Aparri, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center…Gustiness: 155 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North @ 17 kph, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 2 Typhoon as it moves North to NNE across the central and northern parts of the North Philippine Sea…about 847 km east of Basco, Batanes [2AM Oct 21: 21.4N 130.1E @ 165kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the northern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it weakens slightly after reaching Category 3 strength, heads for Japan…about 1,004 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Oct 22: 26.2N 131.5E @ 170kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,450 km (Large)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 360 km from center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri October 20, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.4º N Lat 130.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 858 km E of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 2: 878 km NE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 886 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 895 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 1044 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.



No comments: