Saturday, October 21, 2017

Super Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 10


Super Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 10





Issued at: 6:15 AM PhT (22:15 GMT) Saturday 21 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 21 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

LAN (PAOLO) rapidly intensifies…becomes the second Super Typhoon (STY) of the 2017 Season…expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight.

24-hr Outlook: STY LAN (PAOLO) is forecast to continue intensifying and move rapidly north-northeastward at a speed of 29 kph, across the northernmost part of the North Philippine Sea towards the Sea south of Japan.

*Based on its current projected path, this typhoon is no longer a threat to the country.

Meanwhile, the Southwesterly Windflow which is enhanced by TY LAN (PAOLO) has started to weaken, but will continue to bring light to moderate to at times heavy rain showers and thunderstorms across Occidental Mindoro, Romblon, Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the Kalayaan Island Group.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 21…2100 GMT.  The 50-km large eye was located over the central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 21.0N 130.9E), about 927 km east of Basco, Batanes or 957 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 225 kph near the center…Gustiness: 190 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northeast @ 14 kph, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of PAR. Starts to weaken after reaching Category 5 status as it accelerates rapidly NNE towards Central Japan…about 1,075 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Oct 22: 26.3N 132.2E @ 235kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,640 km (Large)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat October 21, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 21.0º N Lat 130.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 1002 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 2: 1028 km E of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 3: 1033 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1060 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 5: 1263 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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