Thursday, October 26, 2017

Tropical Storm SAOLA (QUEDAN) Update No. 03


Tropical Storm SAOLA (QUEDAN) Update No. 03





Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thursday 26 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 27 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

SAOLA (QUEDAN) has been downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS) while moving northwestward across the North Philippine Sea during the past 12 hours.

24-hr Outlook: TS SAOLA (QUEDAN) is expected re-intensify and maintain its northwesterly track across the middle part of the North Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 20 kph.

*Based on its current and forecast track, this storm is not a threat to the country.

Where is SAOLA (QUEDAN)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 26…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the southeastern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.9N 131.4E), about 975 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela or 999 km east of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 20 kph, towards the middle part of the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens back to a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it tracks northwestward across the middle part of the North Philippine Sea…about 733 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM Oct 27: 21.9N 128.9E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it becomes a Typhoon (TY), approaching Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands…about 572 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM Oct 28: 25.8N 127.2E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its Typhoon status as it recurves towards the east-northeast…about 822 km east-southeast of Shanghai, China [2PM Oct 29: 28.3N 129.3E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 780 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu October 26, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.9º N Lat 131.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 1022 km E of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 1030 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 1039 km NE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 1053 km NE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 1201 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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