Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Tropical Storm LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 02


Tropical Storm LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 02





Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Tuesday 17 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 17 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm LAN (PAOLO) has been moving slowly westward during the past 12 hours as it strengthened slightly while over the southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea. 

TS LAN (PAOLO) is expected to remain quasi-stationary during the next 24 hours, and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) later today.

*This storm is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

Meanwhile, a new Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W has emerged over the West Philippine Sea, near the west coast of  the Calamian Group of Islands and was located about 237 km west of Coron, Palawan (18.0N 118.0E). This LPA and its associated Trough will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa and most parts of the Visayas today. LPA 94W will be closely monitored for possible development in the next couple of days.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 17…2100 GMT.  The center was located along southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.8N 132.5E), about 720 km east-northeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur or 741  km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center…Gustiness: 95 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Westward @ 11 kph, towards Eastern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into an STS while remaining almost stationary over the southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 741 km east-northeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur [2AM Oct 18: 10.8N 132.7E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Category 2 Typhoon as it accelerates North to NNE across the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 993 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM Oct 19: 15.5N 133.7E @ 165kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Reaches Category 4 strength as it maintains its northerly track across the southeastern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 1,103 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM Oct 20: 18.3N 132.6E @ 205kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 995 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue October 17, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.8º N Lat 132.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 740 km ENE of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 2: 785 km ENE of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 3: 810 km ENE of Mati City, Davao Oriental
Distance 4: 824 km ENE of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 5: 1310 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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