Thursday, October 19, 2017

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 06


Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 06





Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Thursday 19 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 19 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) has maintained its strength as it slightly moved northwestward across the Central Philippine Sea during the past 06 hours. The typhoon's western Trough will continue to bring "on-and-off" rains and thunderstorms over the Bicol Region, Southern Quezon and Samar Provinces.  

TY LAN (PAOLO) is expected to gain more strength and resume its north-northwest track for the next 24 hours at a decreased speed of 15 kph.

*Based on its current projected path, this typhoon will not directly affect any part of the country.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 19…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the mid-eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.1N 130.3E), about 783 km east-northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur or 892 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center…Gustiness: 150 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 22 kph, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Category 3 Typhoon as it moves north-northwest to northward across the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 781 km east of Palanan, Isabela [2AM Oct 20: 17.9N 129.7E @ 170kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Category 4 Typhoon as it starts to recurve towards the north-northeast across the southern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 771 km east of Basco, Batanes [2AM Oct 21: 21.0N 129.4E @ 215kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon as it accelerates north-northeastward, across the northern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 864 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Oct 22: 24.5N 130.1E @ 190kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 520 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 910 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 160 km from center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu October 19, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.1º N Lat 130.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 654 km NE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 740 km ENE of Legazpi City, Albay 
Distance 3: 763 km NE of Ormoc City, Leyte
Distance 4: 765 km ENE of Iriga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 1153 km E of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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