Friday, October 13, 2017

Tropical Storm KHANUN (ODETTE) Update Number 005


Tropical Storm KHANUN (ODETTE) Update Number 005





Issued at: 6:45 AM PhT (22:45 GMT) Friday 13 October 2017
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday, 13 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm KHANUN (ODETTE) is now traversing Extreme Northern Luzon, after it made landfall over the Town of Gonzaga in Northern Cagayan early this morning (approx. 2am).  Its center is currently along the Apayao-Cagayan Border.

This storm is expected to slightly intensify and move west-southwestward in the next 24 hours at a decreased forward speed of 20 km/hr, crossing Apayao and Ilocos Provinces this morning.  It will emerge over the West Philippine Sea before 12 PM today. 

*Residents within the circulation of this tropical cyclone are advised to take precautionary measures and be on full alert against flash floods, landslides and swollen river banks.

Where is Khanun (Odette)?As of 5:00 AM PhT, October 13…2100 GMT.  The center was located along the Cagayan-Apayao Border (near 18.2N 121.5E), about 23 km southwest of Aparri, Cagayan or 137 km east-northeast of Vigan  City, Ilocos Sur
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

*At 5:30am this morning, WPF-Laoag International Airport AWS (980788) has reported wind gusts of 94 km/hr blowing from the North.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 21 kph, towards Apayao-Ilocos Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Currently Overland (Apayao-Cagayan Border).
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Extreme Northern and Northern Luzon – Today through Friday evening (Oct 13).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves across the West Philippine Sea, about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 234 km west-northwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Oct 14: 16.8N 117.9E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside PAR, or over the South China Sea…becomes a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) as it moves WNW towards Southern China…about 485 km south of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 15: 18.1N 114.9E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Tropical Cyclone Size (in diameter): 240 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri October 13, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.2º N Lat 121.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 76 km WSW of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 88 km N of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 3: 126 km S of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 4: 164 km NW of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 5: 406 km N of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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