Thursday, October 12, 2017

Tropical Depression (ODETTE) Update Number 001


Tropical Depression (ODETTE) Update Number 001





Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 12 October 2017
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday, 12 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

The broad and strong Tropical Disturbance (LPA) over the Philippine Sea has strengthened into a Tropical Depression (TD) locally named as ODETTE…expected to cross Extreme Northern Luzon late tonight. Moderate to heavy rains with gusty winds are likely to be felt across the area beginning today through Friday.

This depression is expected to move swiftly westward for the next 24 hours at a speed of 32 km/hr, and shall make landfall along Eastern Cagayan on or before midnight tonight, and traverse Extreme Northern Luzon by early Friday morning (Oct 13). ODETTE could become a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) before or after making landfall.

*Residents within the circulation of this tropical cyclone are advised to take precautionary measures and be on full alert against flash floods, landslides and swollen river banks.

Where is ODETTE?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 12…2100 GMT.  The center was located over mid-northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.5N 127.5E), about 545 km east of Palanan, Isabela or 580 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest @ 21 kph, towards Extreme Northern Luzon.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Coast of Eastern Cagayan at approx. 10pm-12am tonight, with a High Strike Probability of 70-80%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected in 24 hours):
>> Extreme Northern Luzon – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Southern Apayao as Tropical Storm (TS)…about 56 km west-northwest of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [2AM Oct 13: 17.7N 121.2E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens further while over the West Philippine Sea, exiting PAR…about 317 km west of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2AM Oct 14: 17.5N 117.4E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of PAR as it intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while moving WNW across the South China Sea…about 317 km west of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2AM Oct 15: 18.3N 113.7E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 740 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu October 12, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.5º N Lat 127.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 588 km E of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 2: 616 km E of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 630 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 758 km E of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 5: 768 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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