Monday, October 16, 2017

Tropical Storm LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 01


Tropical Storm LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 01





Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Monday 16 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 17 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

The Tropical Disturbance (LPA 91W) over the Western Micronesia has developed into a Tropical Cyclone overnight and is now a Tropical Storm globally named as "LAN" –  a Marshallese word for storm.  It is also known in the Philippines as "PAOLO."  This storm is now entering the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). 

TS LAN (PAOLO) is expected to move westward for the next 24 hours at a speed of 13 kph, and will become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves across the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea by Tuesday afternoon (Oct 17).

*This storm is too far away to directly affect any part of the country.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 16…0900 GMT.  The center was located along the PAR line or over the easternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.8N 135.0E), about 986 km east-northeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur or 1,013 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northwest slowly @ 05 kph, towards Eastern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into an STS while moving temporarily westward across the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 726 km east-northeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur [2PM Oct 17: 11.0N 132.5E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it accelerates northward across the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 794 km east-northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2PM Oct 18: 12.8N 132.8E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Still intensifying as it reaches Category 2 Typhoon, still moving northward across the northeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 972 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM Oct 19: 16.2N 133.1E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 645 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon October 16, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.8º N Lat 135.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 1044 km E of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
Distance 2: 1053 km E of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 3: 1056 km ENE of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 4: 1094 km ENE of Panabo City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 5: 1569 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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