Friday, October 27, 2017

Tropical Storm SAOLA (QUEDAN) Update No. 04


Tropical Storm SAOLA (QUEDAN) Update No. 04





Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Friday 27 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 27 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm SAOLA (QUEDAN) continues to move northwestward across the North Philippine Sea with no change in strength…likely to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on or before noontime tomorrow (Sat Oct 28).

24-hr Outlook: TS SAOLA (QUEDAN) is expected to become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it maintains its northwesterly track across the northern part of the North Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 19 kph.

*Based on its current and forecast track, this storm is not a threat to the country.

Where is SAOLA (QUEDAN)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 27…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the middle part of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.8N 130.0E), about 833 km east of Basco, Batanes or 861 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 22 kph, towards the northern part of the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens to a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves northwestward across the northern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 622 km east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Oct 28: 23.6N 127.5E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Passing very close to Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands after moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), starts to recurve towards the northeast…about 720 km east-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Oct 29: 28.0N 128.0E @ 110kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 975 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri October 27, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 20.8º N Lat 130.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 906 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 2: 934 km ENE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 943 km ESE of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 975 km ENE of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 5: 1173 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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