Thursday, October 12, 2017

Tropical Depression 24W (ODETTE) Update Number 003


Tropical Depression 24W (ODETTE) Update Number 003





Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thursday 12 October 2017
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Friday, 13 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression (TD) 24W [ODETTE] has slightly intensified as it moves quickly west-northwestward, closer to Cagayan.  Its broad and elongated rainbands together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will continue to affect Northern Luzon.

This depression is expected to slightly slow down and move on a west to west-southwest track for the next 12 to 24 hours at a speed of 25 km/hr, and will make landfall along Northeastern Cagayan tonight, and traverse Extreme Northern Luzon by early Friday morning (Oct 13), passing across Apayao and Ilocos Provinces. By Friday afternoon, it shall be over the West Philippine Sea. 24W (Odette) could become a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) before it makes landfall tonight.

*Residents within the circulation of this tropical cyclone are advised to take precautionary measures and be on full alert against flash floods, landslides and swollen river banks.

Where is 24W (Odette)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 12…0900 GMT.  The center was located over northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 18.2N 123.8E), about 176 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 229 km east-northeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest @ 34 kph, towards Cagayan-Apayao Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Northeastern Coast of Cagayan at approx. 8-10pm tonight, with a High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> Extreme Northern Luzon – Tonight through Friday morning (Oct 13).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Tracks WSW across the West Philippine Sea as it gains strength…about 157 km northwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Oct 13: 17.1N 118.9E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens to a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) after moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) towards Southern China…about 448 km west-northwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Oct 14: 17.1N 115.9E @ 110kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 785 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu October 12, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.2º N Lat 123.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 224 km ENE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 2: 265 km ENE of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 3: 290 km NE of Santiago City, Isabela
Distance 4: 317 km E of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 5: 498 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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