Thursday, October 26, 2017

Severe Tropical Storm SAOLA (QUEDAN) Update No. 02


Severe Tropical Storm SAOLA (QUEDAN) Update No. 02





Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Thursday 26 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 26 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

SAOLA (QUEDAN) has strengthened into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves northwest across the North Philippine Sea in the general direction of the Southern Islands of Japan.

24-hr Outlook: STS SAOLA (QUEDAN) will continue to intensify and move northwest across the middle part of the North Philippine Sea at a decreased forward speed of 17 kph.

*Based on its current and forecast track, this storm will not affect any part of the country.

Where is SAOLA (QUEDAN)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 26…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the southeastern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 17.6N 133.0E), about 1,175 km east of Casiguran, Aurora or 1,196 km east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 22 kph, towards the middle part of the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens to near-typhoon intensity as it tracks northwestward across the middle part of the North Philippine Sea…about 929 km east of Basco, Batanes [2AM Oct 27: 20.0N 130.9E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon (TY) as it is about to exit the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), while over the middle part of the North Philippine Sea approaching Okinawa, Japan…about 669 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Oct 28: 24.1N 128.1E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Located outside of PAR or along the easternmost part of East China Sea, continues to intensify as it begins to recurve towards the ENE…about 764 km east-southeast of Shanghai, China [2AM Oct 29: 28.6N 128.8E @ 145kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 760 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 110 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu October 26, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.6º N Lat 133.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 1042 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1109 km ENE of Tabaco City, Albay
Distance 3: 1127 km ENE of Iriga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 1139 km ENE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 1319 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.



No comments: