Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 91W StormWatch No. 01

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 91W STORMWATCH #01 Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Sunday 15 October 2017 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Monday 16 Oct 2017 or earlier
Current Status and Outlook	A developing Tropical Disturbance (LPA) [91W] in the vicinity of Western Micronesia (Caroline Islands) is heading towards the Philippine Sea and is likely to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 06 to 24 hours.  It is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow evening (Mon Oct 16).
Where is LPA 91W?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 15…0900 GMT.  The developing center was located over Western Micronesia (near 9.3N 137.2E), about 107 km west-southwest of Colonia, Yap State or 1,284 km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 50 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)	It was moving North-Northwest @ 19 kph, towards Easternmost Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights	The reliable Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) are showing this system to become a Tropical Depression up to a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) within the next 06 to 24 hours, and will enter the PAR on Monday evening, Oct 16, between 8-10pm.  The forecast confidence is currently at Medium (35-65%). This LPA is too far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines. Once this LPA becomes a Tropical Cyclone (TC) and enters the PAR – it will be locally named as "PAOLO," with global name "LAN" The Day 4 to 6 forecast shows it recurving north to north-northeast across the Philippine Sea towards the Sea south of Japan.  If this trend will continue, no Philippine landfall is expected.  This 24-hour StormWatch Update will be replaced with a 12-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates once the LPA 91W becomes a Tropical Cyclone and enters the PAR.
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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