Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Severe Tropical Storm LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 04


Severe Tropical Storm LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 04



Issued at: 6:15 AM PhT (22:15 GMT) Wednesday 18 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 18 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm LAN (PAOLO) continues to intensify as it starts to move slowly north-northeastward across the southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea. Its westernmost outer rainbands continues to spread along the eastern seaboards of Visayas.  

STS LAN (PAOLO) is expected to turn more north then north-northwestward within the next 12 to 24 hours at a normal speed of 20 kph, and is likely to become a Typhoon later today.

*Based on its current projected path, this storm will not directly affect any part of the country.

Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W  still quasi-stationary over the West Philippine Sea, or in the vicinity of Kalayaan Island Group (KIG) and was located about 225 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan (10.5N 116.8E). This LPA and its associated Trough will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa including Kalayaan Island Group and Western Visayas today.  LPA 94W will be closely monitored for possible development in the next couple of days.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 18…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 11.0N 132.4E), about 729 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 766  km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 110 kph near the center…Gustiness: 140 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North-Northeast @ 08 kph, towards the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon as it accelerates north to north-northwestward across the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 736 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM Oct 19: 14.6N 131.5E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly intensifies into a Category 4 Typhoon as it maintains its north-northwest track across the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 802 km east of Palanan, Isabela [2AM Oct 20: 17.9N 129.9E @ 205kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Super Typhoon as it starts to recurve north-northeastward across the central part of the North Philippine Sea…about 753 km east of Basco, Batanes [2AM Oct 21: 21.3N 129.2E @ 225kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 945 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 125 km from center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed October 18, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.0º N Lat 132.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 715 km ENE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 2: 780 km ENE of Cabadbaran City, Surigao Del Norte
Distance 3: 812 km E of Tacloban City, Leyte
Distance 4: 824 km ENE of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 5: 1292 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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