Thursday, October 19, 2017

Tropical Depression 26W Update No. 01


Tropical Depression 26W Update No. 01





Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 19 October 2017
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday, 19 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression (TD) 26W newly-formed over the West Philippine Sea, west of Palawan…now threatens Palawan and the Visayas.  

TD 26W is expected to intensify slightly and accelerate east-northeastward, passing and making landfall over Northern Palawan later tonight at a speed of 19 kph. By early Friday morning, the depression could become a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) and shall be in the vicinity of Pamalican-Cuyo Island Area.

*Residents along the path of this tropical cyclone should take precautionary measures against flash floods, swollen rivers and landslides.

Where is 26W?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 19…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the southern part of the West Philippine Sea (near 10.0N 117.3E), about 163 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 564 km southwest of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northeast @ 18 kph, towards Northern Palawan-Cuyo Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Northern Palawan at approx. 6-8pm tonight, with a Medium Strike Prbobability of 50-65%..
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> Most parts of Palawan and Sulu Archipelag0 – Today through Friday morning (Oct 20).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) as it emerges over the the northern part of Sulu Sea, in the vicinity of Pamalican-Cuyo Is. Area…about 101 km southeast of Coron, Palawan [2AM Oct 20: 11.3N 120.7E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens slightly as it accelerates east-northeast across the Central Philippine Sea, after traversing Aklan, Masbate and San Bernardino Strait…about 300 km east-northeast of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon [2AM Oct 21: 14.2N 126.5E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 440 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu October 19, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.0º N Lat 117.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 581 km E of Iloilo City, Iloilo
Distance 2: 599 km WSW of Paasi City, Iloilo
Distance 3: 607 km SW of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 4: 610 km W of Himamaylan City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 652 km SW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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