Thursday, October 12, 2017

Tropical Depression (ODETTE) Update Number 002


Tropical Depression (ODETTE) Update Number 002



Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Thursday 12 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 12 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression (TD) ODETTE still consolidating over the Philippine Sea with no change in strength,  as it accelerates closer to Extreme Northern Luzon.  Its broad and elongated rainbands together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) are now affecting Northern Luzon.

This depression is expected to move on a fast, west to west-southwest track for the next 24 hours at a speed of 30 km/hr, and shall make landfall along Northeastern Cagayan before midnight tonight, and traverse Extreme Northern Luzon by early Friday morning (Oct 13). ODETTE may slightly intensify before or after making landfall.

*Residents within the circulation of this tropical cyclone are advised to take precautionary measures and be on full alert against flash floods, landslides and swollen river banks.

Where is ODETTE?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 12…0300 GMT.  The center was located over mid-northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.8N 125.7E), about 383 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 422 km east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest @ 32 kph, towards Cagayan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Coast of Northeastern Cagayan at approx. 8-10pm tonight, with a High Strike Probability of 75-85%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> Extreme Northern Luzon – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING: Emerges over the West Coast of Ilocos Sur while moving WSW across the West Philippine Sea…about 64 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM Oct 13: 17.4N 119.8E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY MORNING: Strengthens further as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 317 km west of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM Oct 14: 17.2N 116.4E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 790 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu October 12, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.8º N Lat 125.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 357 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 399 km ENE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 434 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 564 km E of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 5: 813 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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