Friday, October 13, 2017

Tropical Storm KHANUN (ODETTE) Update Number 004


Tropical Storm KHANUN (ODETTE) Update Number 004


Issued at: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Friday 13 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 13 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression (TD) 24W (ODETTE) has intensified into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moved west-southwestward in the past 6 hours. It has an international name of "KHANUN" which means "JACKFRUIT" in Thai. It is expected to make its landfall over the Coast of Southeastern Cagayan today between 2-3 AM. Residents along its path are advised beforehand to take all necessary precautions. Its rainbands together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will continue to affect the Extreme Northern and Northern Luzon.

The storm is expected to slightly intensify as it moves westward in the next 24 hours at a forward speed of 22 km/hr. It will emerge over the West Philippine Sea around 8 AM today (Oct 13). 

*Residents within the circulation of this tropical cyclone are advised to take precautionary measures and be on full alert against flash floods, landslides and swollen river banks.

Where is Khanun


As of 11:00 PM PhT, October 12…1500 GMT.  The center was located over the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.8N 122.7E), about 95 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 105 km east-northeast of Tuguegarao  City, Cagayan
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Southwest @ 21 kph, towards Cagayan-Apayao Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Coast of Southeastern Cagayan at around 2-3am today, with a High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Extreme Northern and Northern Luzon – Today through Friday afternoon (Oct 13).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EVENING: Slightly intensifies as it emerges across the West Philippine Sea…about 205 km northwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8PM Oct 13: 17.2N 118.4E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a Typhoon (TY) after exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) towards Southern China…about 521 km west-northwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8PM Oct 14: 17.5N 115.3E @ 120kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 350 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu October 12, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.8º N Lat 122.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 128 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 141 km ENE of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 3: 214 km SE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 4: 227 km E of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte
Distance 5: 399 km NNE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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