Thursday, October 19, 2017

Tropical Depression 26W Update No. 02


Tropical Depression 26W Update No. 02




Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Thursday 19 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 19 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression (TD) 26W slowly consolidating over the West Philippine Sea as it moves north-northeast and maintaining its wind intensity during the past 6 hours. ..remains a threat to Palawan and Northwestern Visayas. 

TD 26W is expected to intensify slightly and accelerate east-northeastward, passing and making landfall over Northern Palawan later tonight at a speed of 25 kph. By Friday morning (Oct 20), the depression could become a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) and shall be in the vicinity of Boracay Island.

*Residents along the path of this tropical cyclone should take precautionary measures against flash floods, overflowing rivers and landslides.

Meanwhile, the whole of the Visayas and Western Mindanao will continue to have occasional rains and thunderstorms due to the Westerly and Southwesterly Surface Windflow being enhanced by Typhoon LAN (PAOLO).

Where is 26W?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 19…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the southern part of the West Philippine Sea (near 10.5N 117.5E), about 153 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 511 km southwest of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North-Northeast @ 11 kph, towards Northern Palawan-Cuyo Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Northern Palawan at approx. 8-10pm tonight, with a Medium Strike Prbobability of 50-65%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> Most parts of Palawan and Sulu Archipelago – Today through Friday morning (Oct 20).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) as it passes along Boracay and the northern coast of Antique, accelerating east-northeastward across the Jintotolo Channel…about 86 km northwest of Roxas City, Capiz [8AM Oct 20: 12.0N 122.1E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) as it emerges over western part of the Central Philippine Sea, after traversing Masbate and Sorsogon…about 473 km east-northeast of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon [8AM Oct 21: 15.3N 127.7E @ 35kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 455 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu October 19, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.5º N Lat 117.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 550 km SW of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 2: 553 km W of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 557 km SW of Trece Martires City, Cavite
Distance 4: 567 km W of Paasi City, Iloilo
Distance 5: 595 km SW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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