Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Severe Tropical Storm LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 03


Severe Tropical Storm LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 03





Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Tuesday 17 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 18 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

LAN (PAOLO) has intensified rapidly into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it drifted very slowly over the southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea. Its westernmost outer rainbands is currently reaching the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao, where light rains and isolated thunderstorms may be expected.  

STS LAN (PAOLO) is expected to begin moving northward within the next 24 hours at a normal speed of 20 kph, and could become a Typhoon by tomorrow morning (Oct 18).

*Based on its current projected path, this storm will not directly affect any part of the country.

Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W  has remained quasi-stationary over the West Philippine Sea, just to the west of  Northern Palawan and was located about 107 km west-southwest of El Nido, Palawan (11.0N 118.5E). This LPA and its associated Trough will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa including Kalayaan Island Group and Western Visayas today.  LPA 94W will be closely monitored for possible development in the next couple of days.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 17…0900 GMT.  The center was located along southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.2N 132.2E), about 714 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 734  km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving East-Southeast @ 08 kph, towards Eastern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Typhoon as it accelerates north to north-northwestward across the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 897 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM Oct 18: 13.9N 132.5E @ 145kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly intensifies into a Category 4 Typhoon as it maintains its north-northwest track across the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 884 km east of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Oct 19: 16.8N 130.7E @ 200kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Super Typhoon as it moves northward across the southern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 787 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Oct 20: 19.2N 129.6E @ 225kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 980 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km from center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue October 17, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.2º N Lat 132.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 673 km E of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 2: 743 km ENE of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 3: 755 km ESE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
Distance 4: 785 km ENE of Panabo City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 5: 1304 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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