Thursday, October 19, 2017

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 07


Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 07


Issued at: 7:40 PM PhT (11:40 GMT) Thursday 19 October 2017
Next update: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Friday, 20 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) has slightly intensified as it moved north-northwestward over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours. Its southwestern rainbands continues to bring "on-and-off" rains and thunderstorms over the Bicol Region and Samar Provinces.  

TY LAN (PAOLO) is expected to intensify as it moves northward in the next 24 hours over the southern part of the North Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 15 kph.

Meanwhile, the combined effects of Typhoon LAN (PAOLO), Monsoon Trough, Southwesterly Windflow, and Tropical Depression 26W will continue to bring moderate to at times extreme rain showers and thunderstorms over Palawan, Western Visayas, and Eastern sections of Bicol Region.

*Based on its current projected path, this typhoon will not directly affect any part of the country.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 19…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.8N 130.0E), about 759 km northeast of Borongan  City, Eastern Samar or 784 km northeast of Catbalogan City, Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center…Gustiness: 155 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 12 kph, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 3 Typhoon as it moves towards the southern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 792 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Oct 20: 19.6N 129.6E @ 170kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to gain strength as it moves towards the northern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 882 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM Oct 21: 23.0N 130.1E @ 205kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly weakens after it exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), already threatening the southern part of Japan..about 1069 km east-southeast of Shanghai , China [2PM Oct 22: 28.0N 131.9E @ 190kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 550 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 920 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 195 km from center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu October 19, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.8º N Lat 130.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 785 km NE of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 2: 790 km NE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 3: 807 km ENE of Ligao City, Albay
Distance 4: 811 km ENE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 988 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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