Friday, October 27, 2017

Severe Tropical Storm SAOLA (QUEDAN) Update No. 05


Severe Tropical Storm SAOLA (QUEDAN) Update No. 05





Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Friday 27 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 28 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

SAOLA (QUEDAN) has re-intensified back to a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it accelerates to the north-northwest, while over the North Philippine Sea.  It will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow morning (Sat Oct 28).

24-hr Outlook: STS SAOLA (QUEDAN) is expected to become a Typhoon (TY) while moving north-northwestward  at a forward speed of 19 kph, and shall pass over or very close to Okinawa, Japan by tomorrow afternoon.

*Based on its current and forecast track, this storm is not a threat to the country.

Where is SAOLA (QUEDAN)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 27…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the northern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 23.2N 128.6E), about 742 km east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan or 746 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 26 kph, towards Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Outside of PAR as it becomes a Typhoon (TY) while passing over or very close to Okinawa, Japan…about 651 km east-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM Oct 28: 26.7N 127.8E @ 120kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 905 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 30 km from the center

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri October 27, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 23.2º N Lat 128.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 747 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 814 km E of Taichung, Taiwan
Distance 3: 902 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 948 km NE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1244 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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