Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Depression 22W (KABAYAN) Update Number 001

Tropical Depression 22W (KABAYAN) Update Number 001

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KABAYAN) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 2:45 PM PhT (06:45 GMT) Thursday 01 October 2015
Next Update: Thursday Evening, 01 October 2015

The strong disturbance (LPA) east of Bicol Region has strengthened into Tropical Depression (TD) 22W locally named as "KABAYAN"...now passing close to the coast of Northern Camarines Sur or just to the north of the Town of Caramoan. This system is currently bringing occasional to frequent moderate to heavy rains and thunderstorms across the Bicol Region today...and is expected to traverse Central Luzon tomorrow morning (Friday, October 02).

Fishermen in coastal areas along the path of TD 22W (KABAYAN) are advised not to venture out to sea due to sudden big waves that could be generated by severe thunderstorms.

Residents and visitors along Bicol Region and the Rest of Luzon should closely monitor the development of TD 22W (KABAYAN).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Northern and Southern Quezon, Rizal, Portions of Metro Manila (NCR), Laguna, Batangas, Northwestern Mindoro, Lubang Is., Portions of Zambales and Bataan, and Portions of Tarlac and Southern Pangasinan - Beginning Tonight until Friday Evening (Oct 02).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Bicol Region, Masbate, Burias and Ticao Islands, Eastern Romblon, Portions of Northern Samar, The Rest of Southern Luzon, Central Luzon incl. the Rest of Metro Manila (NCR), Mindoro, and Marinduque - Today until Friday Evening (Oct 02).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Calamian Group of Islands, Northwestern Panay incl. Boracay, Rest of Romblon, and Southern Mindoro - Today until Friday Morning (Oct 02).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 1:00 PM PhT today, October 01...0500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TD 22W (KABAYAN)
Location: Near Caramoan Peninsula (near 14.3N 124.0E)
About: 31 km northwest of Pandan, Catanduanes...or 60 km north-northeast of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 220 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 300 km (Midget)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 33 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 18 kph
Towards: Central Luzon

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TD 22W (KABAYAN) is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward across North Central Philippines during the outlook period. On the forecast track, 22W will be passing over the Polillo Islands later tonight and shall make landfall over Northern Quezon by early Friday morning (Oct 02). Throughout Friday, 22W will cross Central Luzon - passing over Nueva Ecija and Southern Pangasinan...and shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea in the evening. On Saturday afternoon, 22W shall be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves towards Hainan Island.

TD 22W (KABAYAN) will slightly intensify within the next 12 hours...and shall weaken upon crossing the rugged terrain of Central Luzon through then next 24 hours. 22W shall intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea at the end of the outlook period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 55 kph this evening...decreasing to 45 kph on Friday (Oct 02)...and increasing to 75 kph on Saturday (Oct 03).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens while over the Western part of Central Luzon...about 15 km southwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [2PM OCT 02: 15.9N 120.2E @ 45kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the PAR while moving across the South China Sea...strengthens into a TS...about 459 km south-southeast of Hong Kong [2PM OCT 03: 18.2N 115.3E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Eastern Hainan...about 71 km east-southeast of Haikou, Hainan [2PM OCT 04: 19.8N 110.9E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 1:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 01, 2015
Location of Center: Near 14.3º N Lat 124.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 81 km NNW of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 83 km ENE of Siruma, CamSur
Distance 3: 116 km NE of Naga City, CamSur
Distance 4: 121 km ENE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 5: 325 km ESE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph