Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 011

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 011

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 011
Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 18 October 2015
Next Update: Sunday Afternoon, 18 October 2015

Super Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) has slightly weakened after its Eye made landfall along the Central Shores of Aurora early this morning...currently traversing across the southern provinces of Northern Luzon. This cyclone will continue to bring powerful winds and heavy rains across most parts of Northern Luzon today. WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Station in Baler, Aurora Brgy. Zabali (GMA Farms Inc.) has recorded the highest Wind Gusts of 191 kph at around 2:50 AM, Oct. 18 during KOPPU's (LANDO) landfall over the area.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TY KOPPU (LANDO).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Southern Cagayan, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Quirino and Isabela - Today through Monday Morning (Oct 19).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Cagayan incl. the Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Ilocos Provinces, Abra, La Union, Pangasinan, Northern Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Islands, and Nueva Ecija - Today through Monday Morning (Oct 19).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Batangas, Rest of Zambales, Bataan, Laguna, Cavite, Rizal and Metro Manila - Today through Monday Morning (Oct 19).

WINDS
Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Aurora, Southeastern Isabela, Portions of Nueva Vizcaya and Quirino - Today (Oct 18).

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Southern Isabela, Central parts of Nueva Vizcaya, and Eastern Nueva Ecija - Today.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Most of Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Eastern Benguet, Eastern Pangasinan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Northern Bataan, Rizal, Cavite, Metro Manila, Northern Quezon incl. Polillo, Rest of Nueva Ecija - Today through Tuesday Morning (Oct 18).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 18...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Over Southern Quirino...(near 16.1N 121.5E)
About: 65 km west-southwest of Casiguran, Aurora...or 35 km north-northwest of Baler, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 195 kph near the center...Gustiness: 230 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (southwest and west of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 750 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 130 km from the center
Past Movement: West @ 11 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest to Northwest @ 09 kph
Towards: Quirino-Nueva Vizcaya-Benguet-Ifugao-Mt. Province Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY KOPPU (LANDO) is expected to turn west-northwest to northwest with slow speed for the next 24 hours...turning north-northeast to northeast on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse the southern provinces of Northern Luzon today (Oct 18) through the western-central provinces by early Monday morning (Oct 19)...across the Cordillera Mountain in Ifugao and Mt. Province.

TY KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to continue to weaken during the outlook period as it traverses the rugged mountain ranges of Northern Luzon. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds weakening to 130 kph on Monday early morning (Oct 19)...and rapidly decreasing further to 45 kph on Tuesday early morning (Oct 20).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further as it moves northwestward across Ifugao...about 54 km east-southeast of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2AM OCT 19: 17.3N 120.8E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Just a Tropical Storm as it sharply turns to north-northeast across Mt. Province...about 65 km east-northeast of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2AM OCT 20: 17.7N 121.0E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to weaken...turns northeastward across Kalinga and Cagayan...and reemerges over the Babuyan Channel...about 39 km north-northwest of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM OCT 21: 18.8N 122.0E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Oct 18, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 16.1º N Lat 121.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 139 km SW of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 191 km SSW of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 268 km NW of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 4: 102 km ESE of Baguio City
Distance 5: 186 km NNE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph