Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 005

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 005

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued at: 7:15 AM PhT (23:15 GMT) Friday 16 October 2015
Next Update: Friday Afternoon, 16 October 2015

KOPPU (LANDO) has intensified into a Typhoon as it slows down and continues to move on its generally westward track threatening Northern and Central Luzon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora on Sunday morning (Oct 18)...with a Strike Probability of 80 to 90 percent.

KOPPU (LANDO) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon incl. Bicol and Quezon Provinces today and through the next 24 hours. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TY KOPPU (LANDO).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Northern Aurora, Eastern Isabela and Eastern Cagayan - Beginning tomorrow morning (Oct 17).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Mid part of Aurora, Quirino, Rest of Isabela and Rest of Cagayan - Beginning tomorrow morning (Oct 17).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Apayao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya and Rest of Aurora - Beginning tomorrow morning (Oct 17). Bicol Region - Today (Oct 16).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 16...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Over the central part of the Philippine Sea (near 15.5N 127.5E)
About: 419 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 595 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center...Gustiness: 150 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (southwest and west of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 110 km from the center
Past Movement: West @ 14 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 13 kph
Towards: Eastern Luzon

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS KOPPU (LANDO) will continue to move slowly in a generally westward track throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse the western part of the Philippine Sea during the next 24 hours and shall be approaching the coast of Northern Aurora on the remainder of the forecast period.

TS KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to intensify further during the outlook period while still moving over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds strengthening to 195 kph on Sunday morning (Oct 18).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further as it turns slightly to the west-northwest...about 311 km east of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM OCT 17: 16.0N 124.9E @ 185kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to gain strength as it turns back to west...across the western part of the Philippine Sea...just off the coast of northern Aurora ...about 44 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM OCT 18: 16.1N 122.5E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens as it turns northwestward...traversing along the border of Quirino and Isabela...about 43 km west of Ilagan, Isabela [2AM OCT 19: 16.8N 121.3E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Oct 16, 2015
Location of Center: Near 15.5º N Lat 127.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 387 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 509 km ENE of Naga City, CamSur
Distance 3: 577 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 4: 643 km E of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 707 km ENE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph