Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 006

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 006

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued at: 2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Friday 16 October 2015
Next Update: Friday Evening, 16 October 2015

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) slows down further while moving across the central part of the Philippine Sea...intensified slightly. Threat to Northern and Central Luzon continues. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora on Sunday morning (Oct 18)...with a Strike Probability of 80 to 90 percent.

KOPPU (LANDO) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon incl. Bicol and Quezon Provinces today and through the next 24 hours. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TY KOPPU (LANDO).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Northern Aurora, Eastern Isabela and Eastern Cagayan - Beginning tomorrow morning (Oct 17).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Mid part of Aurora, Quirino, Rest of Isabela and Rest of Cagayan - Beginning tomorrow morning (Oct 17).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Apayao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya and Rest of Aurora - Beginning tomorrow morning (Oct 17). Bicol Region and Polillo Islands - Today (Oct 16).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 16...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Over the central part of the Philippine Sea (near 15.5N 126.8E)
About: 357 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 507 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center...Gustiness: 160 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (southwest and west of the center): 100 to 510 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 110 km from the center
Past Movement: West @ 11 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 11 kph
Towards: Eastern Luzon

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY KOPPU (LANDO) will continue to move slowly in a generally westward to a slight west-northwest track throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse the western part of the Philippine Sea during the next 24 hours and shall make landfall over the coast of Northern Aurora on the remainder of the forecast period.

TY KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to intensify further during the outlook period while still moving over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds strengthening to 185 kph on Saturday morning (Oct 17)...and decreasing to 160 kph on Sunday morning (Oct 18).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Intensifies further as it turns slightly to the west-northwest...about 271 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [8AM OCT 17: 15.8N 124.6E @ 185kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it starts to make landfall over Northern Aurora...about 24 km southwest of Casiguran, Aurora [8AM OCT 18: 16.1N 121.9E @ 160kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY MORNING: Just a Tropical Storm (TS) while traversing Ifugao and Mountain Province...turns northwestward...about 78 km southwest of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [8AM OCT 19: 17.2N 121.1E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: .

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Oct 16, 2015
Location of Center: Near 15.6º N Lat 126.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 325 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 447 km ENE of Naga City, CamSur
Distance 3: 451 km ENE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 4: 557 km E of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 632 km ENE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph