Saturday, October 03, 2015

Tropical Storm MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) Update Number 005


Tropical Storm MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) Update Number 005



Issued at: 7:45 PM PhT (11:45 GMT) Friday 02 October 2015
Next Update: Saturday Morning, 03 October 2015

MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) has slightly accelerated across the West Philippine Sea as it regains Tropical Storm status. Improving weather conditions across the western sections of Central Luzon will be expected beginning Saturday morning.

Fishermen in coastal areas along the path of TS MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) are advised not to venture out to sea due to sudden big waves that could be generated by severe thunderstorms.

Residents and visitors along Southern China, Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the development of TS MUJIGAE (KABAYAN).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Zambales and Western Pangasinan - until late this evening (Oct 02).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Southern La Union, Southern Benguet, Eastern Pangasinan, Tarlac, Pampanga and Bataan - until late this evening (Oct 02).


As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 02...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS MUJIGAE (KABAYAN)
Location: Over the West Philippine Sea (near 16.7N 118.3E)
About: 213 km west of San Fernando City, La Union...or 245 km west-southwest of Vigan City
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 50 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 510 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 24 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 21 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea


TS MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) will continue to move on a generally west-northwest track during the outlook period. On the forecast track, MUJIGAE will be traversing the West Philippine Sea through tonight...and shall move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight or Saturday early morning on its way to Southern China via the South China Sea. On Sunday afternoon, the storm will start to make landfall over Leizhou Peninsula in Southern China.

TS MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) will continue to gather strength throughout the outlook period as it traverses the warm waters of West Philippine and South China Seas. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds strengthening to 110 kph on Sunday afternoon (Oct 04).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies further as it moves over the South China Sea, outside of PAR...about 401 km south of Hong Kong, China [2PM OCT 03: 18.6N 114.5E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Almost a Typhoon as it bears down the coasts of Northern Hainan and Leizhou Peninsula...about 64 km north-northeast of Haikou, China [2PM OCT 04: 20.6N 110.6E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakening rapidly as moves near the China-Vietnam Border...about 115 km northwest of Mong Cai City, Vietnam [2PM OCT 05: 22.3N 107.2E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Oct 02, 2015
Location of Center: Near 16.7º N Lat 118.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 227 km WNW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 2: 249 km WNW of Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 3: 239 km NW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 4: 387 km NW of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 756 km SE of Hong Kong, China

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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