Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Depression MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) Update Number 004

Tropical Depression MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) Update Number 004

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 1:15 PM PhT (05:15 GMT) Friday 02 October 2015
Next Update: Friday Evening, 02 October 2015

MIJUGAE (KABAYAN) reemerges over the West Philippine Sea after traversing Central and Northern Luzon area. Its eastern outer rainbands continue to affect the western section of Central Luzon.

Fishermen in coastal areas along the path of TD MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) are advised not to venture out to sea due to sudden big waves that could be generated by severe thunderstorms.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TD MUJIGAE (KABAYAN).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Zambales and Western Pangasinan - until late this evening (Oct 02).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Southern La Union, Southern Benguet, Eastern Pangasinan, Tarlac, Pampanga and Bataan - until late this evening (Oct 02).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 02...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TD MUJIGAE (KABAYAN)
Location: Off the northwestern coast of Pangasinan (near 16.4N 119.6E)
About: 82 km west-northwest of Dagupan City...or 107 km west of Baguio City
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 510 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 21 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 23 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TD MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) will continue to move on a west-northwest track during the outlook period. On the forecast track, MUJIGAE will be traversing the West Philippine Sea through late this evening...and shall move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday early morning on its way to Southern China via the South China Sea.

TD MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) will re-intensify within the next 12 hours and will further gain strength throughout the outlook period as it traverses the warm waters of West Philippine and South China Seas. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds strengthening to 100 kph on Sunday morning (Oct 04).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Intensifies as it moves over the South China Sea...about 533 km west-northwest of San Fernando City, La Union [8AM OCT 03: 18.3N 115.6E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY MORNING: Intensifies further as it approaches Hainan...about 126 km east of Haikou, China [8AM OCT 04: 20.0N 111.5E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it prepares to make landfall along China-Vietnam border...about 31 km east of Mong Cai City, Vietnam [8AM OCT 05: 21.5N 108.2E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Oct 02, 2015
Location of Center: Near 16.4º N Lat 119.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 78 km WSW of San Fernando, La Union
Distance 2: 146 km NW of Tarlac City, Tarlac
Distance 3: 130 km NNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 4: 259 km NNW of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 180 km NW of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph