Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 004

Tropical Storm KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 004

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Thursday 15 October 2015
Next Update: Friday Morning, 16 October 2015

Tropical Storm KOPPU (LANDO) has slightly accelerated and strengthened while over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea...continues on its generally westward track threatening Northern and Central Luzon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora on Sunday afternoon (Oct 18)...with a Strike Probability of 60 to 70 percent.

KOPPU (LANDO) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon incl. Bicol and Quezon Provinces today and through the next 24 hours. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS KOPPU (LANDO).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 24 hours.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 15...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Over the mid-eastern part of the Philippine Sea (near 15.5N 129.8E)
About: 628 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 827 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center...Gustiness: 120 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (southwest and west of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: West @ 25 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest to West @ 17 kph
Towards: Central Philippine Sea

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS KOPPU (LANDO) will continue to move in a generally a slight west-northwest to westward track throughout the outlook period...with a decrease in its forward speed. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse the central part of the Philippine Sea during the next 24 hours and shall proceed through the western part on the remainder of the forecast period.

TS KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to become a Typhoon within the next 24 hours while moving over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea and shall continue to gain strength through the end of the outlook period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds strengthening to 175 kph on Saturday afternoon (Oct 17).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Typhoon as it turns slightly to the west-northwest...about 333 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM OCT 16: 15.8N 126.4E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Gains more strength as it moves generally slightly west-northwestward...across the western part of the Philippine Sea...about 214 km east of Casiguran, Aurora [2PM OCT 17: 16.3N 124.1E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Northern Aurora...turns westward as it weakens...about 25 km north-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora [2PM OCT 18: 16.4N 122.2E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 15, 2015
Location of Center: Near 15.5º N Lat 129.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 622 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 741 km ENE of Naga City, CamSur
Distance 3: 807 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 4: 878 km ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 939 km ENE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph