Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm 22W (KABAYAN) Update Number 002

Tropical Storm 22W (KABAYAN) Update Number 002

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM 22W (KABAYAN) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued at: 9:30 PM PhT (13:30 GMT) Thursday 01 October 2015
Next Update: Friday Morning, 02 October 2015

22W (KABAYAN) has intensified into a Tropical Storm [TS] as it slowed down during the past 6 hours. This storm is forecast to dump occasional to frequent rains across Central and Southern Luzon incl. Metro Manila. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the southern shores of Aurora early Friday morning (Oct 02)...with a Strike Probability of 80 to 90 percent.

Fishermen in coastal areas along the path of TS 22W (KABAYAN) are advised not to venture out to sea due to sudden big waves that could be generated by severe thunderstorms.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS 22W (KABAYAN).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Northern Quezon, Rizal, Portions of Metro Manila (NCR), Portions of Zambales and Bataan, and Portions of Tarlac and Southern Pangasinan - Beginning Tonight until Friday Evening (Oct 02).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): The Rest of Southern Luzon, Central Luzon incl. the Rest of Metro Manila (NCR), Mindoro, and Marinduque - Tonight until Friday Evening (Oct 02).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Calamian Group of Islands, Northwestern Panay incl. Boracay, Rest of Romblon, and Southern Mindoro - Today until Friday Morning (Oct 02).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 7:00 PM PhT today, October 01...1100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS 22W (KABAYAN)
Location: Just to the east of Polillo Island (near 14.9N 123.1E)
About: 92 km north of Daet, Camarines Norte...or 151 km east of Infanta, Quezon
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 300 km (Midget)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 22 kph
Towards: Central Luzon

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS 22W (KABAYAN) is expected to move on a generally west-northwest track during the outlook period. On the forecast track, 22W will be passing just to north the Polillo Islands later tonight and shall make landfall over or just south of Baler, Aurora by early Friday morning (Oct 02) between 2-4 AM. It shall then cross Central Luzon - passing over Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan and Southern La Union on Friday morning through midday...and shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea Friday evening. On Saturday evening, 22W shall be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves towards Hainan Island.

TS 22W (KABAYAN) will slightly intensify within the next 06 hours prior in making landfall...and shall temporarily weaken upon crossing the rugged terrain of Central Luzon through then next 24 hours. 22W shall regain intensity as it emerges over the West Philippine and South China Seas through the end of the outlook period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds strengthening to 75 kph on Friday evening...and further to 85 kph on Saturday evening (Oct 03).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

FRIDAY EVENING: Intensifies further as it moves across the West Philippine Sea...about 207 km west-northwest of San Fernando City, La Union [8PM OCT 02: 17.0N 118.4E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY EVENING: Exits PAR while moving across the South China Sea...continues to intensify...about 356 km south of Hong Kong [8PM OCT 03: 19.0N 114.2E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY EVENING: Becomes a Typhoon as it makes landfall over Leizhou Peninsula in Southern China...about 54 km southwest of Zhanjiang City, China [8PM OCT 04: 20.9N 110.1E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 7:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 01, 2015
Location of Center: Near 14.9º N Lat 123.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 102 km NNW of Siruma, CamSur
Distance 2: 145 km NNW of Naga City, CamSur
Distance 3: 189 km SE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 4: 228 km ENE of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 235 km ESE of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph