Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) Final Update

Tropical Storm MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) Final Update

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) UPDATE NUMBER 006 [Final]
Issued at: 8:30 AM PhT (00:30 GMT) Saturday 03 October 2015

Tropical Storm MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) has intensified further as it moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early this morning...expected to make landfall along the Leizhou Peninsula of Southern China on Sunday Afternoon (Oct 04).

*Since the typhoon is already outside of the PAR, this will be the final update on Mujigae (Kabayan).

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DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 03...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS MUJIGAE (KABAYAN)
Location: Over the South China Sea (near 18.5N 116.1E)
About: 476 km west of Laoag City...or 467 km south-southeast of Hong Kong
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center...Gustiness: 120 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 50 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 475 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Wind Gusts (100 kph or more): 65 km from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 23 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 21 kph
Towards: Southern China

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) will resume moving west-northwestward during the outlook period. On the forecast track, MUJIGAE will be traversing the western part of the South China Sea today...and shall be approaching the eastern coast of Hainan on Sunday morning (Oct 04). On Sunday afternoon, the cyclone shall make landfall over Leizhou Peninsula in Southern China...and shall be moving over land just west of the China-Vietnam Border on Monday early morning (Oct 05).

TS MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) will continue to gather strength throughout the outlook period as it traverses the warm waters of the South China Sea...and could become a Typhoon within the next 24 hours. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds strengthening to 120 kph on Sunday early morning (Oct 04).

The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon as it approaches the eastern coast of Hainan Island (Southern China)...about 201 km east-southeast of Haikou City, China [2AM OCT 04: 19.8N 112.2E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm while moving over land across Southern China, near to the east of the Vietnam-China Border...about 91 km northeast of Mong Cai City, Vietnam [2AM OCT 05: 22.1N 108.5E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Oct 03, 2015
Location of Center: Near 18.5º N Lat 116.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 465 km WNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 2: 493 km NW of San Fernando City, La Union
Distance 3: 584 km ESE of Qionghai City, China
Distance 4: 634 km ESE of Haikou City, China
Distance 5: 687 km NW of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph