Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 007

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 007

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued at: 12:30 AM PhT (00:30 GMT) Saturday 17 October 2015
Next Update: Saturday Mid-Morning, 17 October 2015

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) has gained more strength and continues to move slowly across the western part of the Philippine Sea towards Eastern Luzon...increasing its threat to Northern and Central Luzon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora on Sunday morning (Oct 18)...with a Strike Probability of 70 to 80 percent.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TY KOPPU (LANDO).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Northern Aurora, Eastern Isabela and Eastern Cagayan - Beginning tomorrow morning (Oct 17).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Mid part of Aurora, Quirino, Rest of Isabela and Rest of Cagayan - Beginning tomorrow morning (Oct 17).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Apayao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya and Rest of Aurora - Beginning tomorrow morning (Oct 17). Bicol Region and Polillo Islands - Tonight and tomorrow (Oct 17).

WINDS

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Eastern Isabela and Northern Aurora - Tomorrow (Oct 17).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Isabela and Northern Aurora tomorrow afternoon through Sunday (Oct 18).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 8:00 PM PhT today, October 16...1200 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Over the western part of the Philippine Sea (near 15.7N 125.7E)
About: 293 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 389 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 160 kph near the center...Gustiness: 195 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (southwest and west of the center): 100 to 510 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 10 kph
Towards: Eastern Luzon

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY KOPPU (LANDO) will continue to move slowly in a west-northwest track during the next 24 hours...turning to west on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse the western part of the Philippine Sea towards Eastern Luzon and shall make landfall over the coast of Northern Aurora by Sunday morning.

TY KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to continue to intensify within the next 24 hours and shall lose strength through 48 hours after making landfall. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds strengthening to 205 kph on Saturday evening (Oct 17)...and decreasing to 140 kph on Sunday evening (Oct 18).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY EVENING: Intensifies further as it turns slightly to the west-northwest...about 151 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [8PM OCT 17: 16.0N 123.5E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly after it makes landfall over Northern Aurora...turns northwest...about 32 km east of Baguio City [8PM OCT 18: 16.4N 120.9E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY EVENING: Just a Tropical Storm (TS) while traversing the western-central provinces of Northern Luzon...turns north-northwest...about 44 km east-southeast of Vigan City, Cagayan [8PM OCT 19: 17.5N 120.8E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 8:00 PM PhT Fri Oct 16, 2015
Location of Center: Near 15.7º N Lat 125.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 240 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 356 km NE of Naga City, CamSur
Distance 3: 349 km ENE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 4: 450 km E of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 522 km ENE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes / Neil John Ramal for Weather.com.ph