Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 019

Tropical Storm KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 019

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 019
Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Tuesday 20 October 2015
Next Update: Tuesday Afternoon, 20 October 2015

Tropical Storm (TS) KOPPU [LANDO] weakened further as it drifts northward...off the northwestern coast of Ilocos Norte. Rains and gusty winds will continue to be experienced across the western section of Northern Luzon especially Ilocos Region.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TS KOPPU (LANDO).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Ilocos Sur, Abra and Ilocos Norte - Today through Wednesday morning (Oct 21) .

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): La Union, Western Benguet, Westernmost part of Mt. Province, Western Kalinga, Western Apayao and Northwesternmost part of Cagayan - Today through Wednesday morning (Oct 21).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Pangasinan, Eastern Benguet, Western Ifugao, Mid part of Mt. Province, Eastern Kalinga and Eastern Apayao - Today through Wednesday morning (Oct 21).

WINDS

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Ilocos Norte - Today until this evening (Oct 20).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Northernmost part of Ilocos Sur, Western Abra, Western Apayao and Northwesternmost part of Cagayan - Today until this evening (Oct 20).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Ilocos Norte - Today until Wednesday morning (Oct 21)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 20...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Off the northwestern shores of Ilocos Norte...(near 18.8N 120.3E)
About: 74 km northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte...or 62 km west-northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center...Gustiness: 120 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (west of the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 580 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: North @ 09 kph
Forecast Movement: Northeast @ 04 kph
Towards: Balintang Channel

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS KOPPU (LANDO) is expected to turn northeast during the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse Babuyan-Balintang Channel today through Thursday (Oct 22).

TS KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to weaken further within the next 24 to 48 hours. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds weakening to 85 kph on Wednesday early morning (Oct 21)...remaining with that intensity through 48 hours.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it turns northeast towards Babuyan-Balintang Channel...about 54 km west-southwest of Calayan, Ilocos Cagayan [2AM OCT 21: 19.2N 121.0E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains strength as it continues to track northeastward across the central part of the Balintang Channel...about 89 km south of Basco, Batanes [2AM OCT 22: 19.7N 121.9E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Bearing the same strength as it turns north...traversing the Batanes Group of Islands towards Bashi Channel...about 89 km north-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM OCT 23: 21.5N 122.2E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue Oct 20, 2015
Location of Center: Near 18.8º N Lat 120.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 134 km NNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 2: 245 km N of San Fernando City, La Union
Distance 3: 138 km WSW of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 4: 252 km SSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 484 km NNW of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph