Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 013

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 013

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 013
Issued at: 8:15 PM PhT (12:15 GMT) Sunday 18 October 2015
Next Update: Monday Early Morning, 19 October 2015

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) has started moving slowly as it continues to decay. This cyclone will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rains across most parts of Northern Luzon especially the western coastal areas today through Monday (Oct 19). WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Station in Barangay Binauganan-Tarlac City (LPP) has recorded a 24-hr. Rainfall Accumulation of 161.6 mm from 8:00 AM Oct 17 to 8:00 AM Oct. 18.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TY KOPPU (LANDO).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Abra, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan and Nueva Vizcaya - Today through Monday (Oct 19).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija and Ilocos Norte - Today through (Oct 19).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Pampanga, Bulacan, Batangas, Bataan, Cavite, Rizal, Metro Manila, Quirino, Western Isabela and Western Cagayan - Today through Monday (Oct 19).

WINDS

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Northern Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Ifugao, Western Mt. Province and Southern Ilocos Sur - Today until Monday morning (Oct 19).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan inlc. Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, rest of Ilocos Sur, Abra, rest of Mt. Province, rest of Nueva Ecija, Northern Quezon, Rizal, Metro Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Tarlac and Zambales - Today through Tuesday Morning (Oct 20).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of La Union, Pangasinan, Ilocos Sur and Ilocos Norte - Today until Monday (Oct 19)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 18...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Over Benguet...(near 16.3N 120.7E)
About: 15 km southeast of Baguio City...or 54 km east-northeast of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center...Gustiness: 165 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (southwest and west of the center): 100 to 510 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 750 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 95 km from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 15 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest, North-Northwest, and North @ 06 kph
Towards: La Union-Ilocos Provinces Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY KOPPU (LANDO) is expected to turn north-northwest to northward with slow speed for the next 24 hours...recurving to the northeast to north-northeast on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse the Western Benguet and La Union tonight (Oct 18) and shall emerge along the west coast of Ilocos Sur by Monday late morning or afternoon (Oct 19). It shall be re-entering land through Ilocos Provinces and Abra Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon (Oct 20).

TY KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to rapidly and significantly weaken during the outlook period as it traverses the rugged mountain ranges of the Cordillera in Northern Luzon...and shall only be a weak Tropical Storm (TS) by Monday afternoon. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds weakening to 110 kph on Monday afternoon (Oct 19)...and decreasing further to 75 kph on Tuesday afternoon (Oct 20).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens further into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves northwestward across Ifugao...about 22 km south of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2PM OCT 19: 17.3N 120.2E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to lose strength as it sharply turns to the northeast across Ilocos Sur...about 34 km east-southeast of laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM OCT 20: 18.2N 121.0E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strenghtas it reemerges over the Babuyan Channel...about 59 km north-northwest of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM OCT 21: 18.9N 121.5E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Oct 18, 2015
Location of Center: Near 16.3º N Lat 120.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 55 km ESE of San Fernando City, La Union
Distance 2: 90 km N of Tarlac City, Tarlac
Distance 3: 148 km SSE of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 4: 150 km W of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 194 km NNW of Metro Manila