Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 009

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 009

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 009
Issued at: 3:45 PM PhT (07:45 GMT) Saturday 17 October 2015
Next Update: Saturday Evening, 17 October 2015

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) has further gained strength as it drifts west-southwestward during the past six hours. Northern and Central Luzon particularly the province of Aurora is currently under a serious threat from this typhoon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the mid-part shores of Aurora by Sunday morning (Oct 18)...with a Strike Probability of 90 to 100 percent.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TY KOPPU (LANDO).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Southern Cagayan, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Quirino and Isabela - Beginning this afternoon through Sunday evening (Oct 18).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Cagayan incl. the Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Ilocos Provinces, Abra, La Union, Pangasinan, Northern Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Islands, and Nueva Ecija - Beginning this afternoon through Sunday evening (Oct 18).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Catanduanes, Camarines Provinces, Albay, Rest of Quezon, Marinduque, Batangas, Rest of Zambales, Bataan, Laguna, Cavite, Rizal and Metro Manila - Today through Sunday Evening (Oct 18).

WINDS

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Eastern Cagayan, Eastern Isabela, Eastern Quirino and Aurora - Tonight through Sunday (Oct 18).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Camarines Norte, Northern Camarines Sur (Partido), Northern Catanduanes, Polillo Islands - Today...and along Eastern Cagayan, Eastern Isabela and Aurora - Tonight through Sunday (Oct 18).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 17...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Over the western part of the Philippine Sea (near 15.7N 124.2E)
About: 233 km north of Virac, Catanduanes...or 231 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 185 kph near the center...Gustiness: 220 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (southwest and west of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 850 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 140 km from the center
Past Movement: West-Southwest @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 12 kph
Towards: Aurora
Closest Point of Approach (CPA) to Aurora: Sunday Morning [from 10AM-12PM PhT]

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY KOPPU (LANDO) will continue with its slow westerly track for the next 24 hours...turning sharply northwest for the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse the western part of the Philippine Sea today through Sunday morning towards Aurora and shall make landfall over the mid-coast of Aurora by Sunday late morning (Oct 18). On Monday morning (Oct 19), KOPPU (LANDO) shall be over the mountains of Cordillera...very near Banaue Rice Terraces.

TY KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to start to weaken during the next 24 hours and shall continue to weaken thereafter as it interacts with the mountain ranges of Sierra Madre when it makes landfall over the area and traverses the land mass of northern Luzon. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds weakening to 175 kph on Sunday morning (Oct 18)...and decreasing further to 100 kph on Monday morning (Oct 19).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Slightly weakens...about 34 km east-northeast of Baler, Aurora [8AM OCT 18: 15.9N 121.8E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY MORNING: Weakens further...turns northwest...about 63 km east-southeast of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM OCT 19: 17.3N 120.9E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY MORNING: Just a Tropical Storm (TS)...turns sharply to the northeast across the province of Kalinga...about 57 km east-northeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [8AM OCT 20: 17.8N 122.2E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat Oct 17, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 15.7º N Lat 124.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 178 km N of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 226 km NE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 3: 257 km NNE of Naga City, CamSur
Distance 4: 278 km E of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 368 km ENE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes / Neil John P. Ramal for Weather.com.ph