Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm KOPPU (24W) Update Number 001

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Tropical Storm KOPPU (24W) Update Number 001

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (24W) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Wednesday 14 October 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Evening, 14 October 2015

Tropical Storm KOPPU (24W) has further intensified as it approaches the mid-eastern part of the Philippine Sea in a generally westerly track...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS KOPPU (24W).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 48 hours.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 14...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS KOPPU (24W)
Location: Off the mid-eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (near 15.6N 137.5E)
About: 268 km east of PAR...or 1,626 km east of Aurora, Philippines
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 25 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 555 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: West @ 15 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 25 kph
Towards: Philippine Sea

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS KOPPU (24W) will continue to move in a generally westward track throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon and will be traversing the central part of the Philippine Sea during the forecast period.

TS KOPPU (24W) will continuously intensify during the next 48 hours while moving over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds strengthening to 120 kph on Friday early morning (Oct 16).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies as it moves over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea...about 1,114 km east of Casiguran, Aurora [5AM OCT 15: 15.6N 132.5E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon as it moves over the central part of the Philippine Sea...turning slightly to the west-northwest...about 673 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora [5AM OCT 16: 16.1N 128.4E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it nears northern Luzon...moving in a west-northwesterly direction...about 378 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [5AM OCT 17: 16.8N 125.4E @ 160kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Oct 14, 2015
Location of Center: Near 15.6º N Lat 137.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 1.448 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1,439 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 1,554 km ENE of Metro Naga
Distance 4: 1,657 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1,775 km ENE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph