Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Depression MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) Update Number 003

Tropical Depression MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) Update Number 003

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 8:15 AM PhT (00:15 GMT) Friday 02 October 2015
Next Update: Friday Afternoon, 02 October 2015

Tropical Storm 22W (KABAYAN) which is now internationally named as "MUJIGAE"- a rainbow in Democratic Republic of Korea (North Korea) has weakened into a Tropical Depression after it made lanfall along the coast of Baler, Aurora early this morning...and is now traversing along the border of Central and Northern Luzon on its way to the West Philippine Sea. This cyclone will continue to bring occasional to frequent rains across Central Luzon and some parts of Southern Luzon incl. Metro Manila today until late evening.

Fishermen in coastal areas along the path of TD MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) are advised not to venture out to sea due to sudden big waves that could be generated by severe thunderstorms.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TD MUJIGAE (KABAYAN).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Northern Zambales, Tarlac, Pangasinan, Southern Benguet and Southern La Union - Today until late evening (Oct 02).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Northern Rizal, NCR, Pampanga, Bataan, Southern Zambales, Northern La Union and Northern Benguet - Today until late evening (Oct 02).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Southern Ilocos Sur, Southwestern portions of Mountain Province, Ifugao and Quirino, Southern Aurora, Northern Quezon, Southern Rizal, Laguna, Batangas and Cavite - Today until late evening (Oct 02).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 02...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TD MUJIGAE (KABAYAN)
Location: Along the border of Nueva Ecija and Pangasinan (near 16.0N 120.7E)
About: 43 km east of Dagupan City...or 40 km south-southeast of Baguio City
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 300 km (Midget)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 27 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 22 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TD MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) is expected to move on a west-northwest track during the outlook period. On the forecast track, MUJIGAE will be traversing the West Philippine Sea today through late this evening...and shall move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday early morning.

TD MUJIGAE (KABAYAN) will re-intensify and gain further strength throughout the outlook period as it traverses the West Philippine and South China Seas. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds strengthening to 100 kph on Sunday early morning (Oct 04).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Re-intensifies as it moves out of PAR...about 391 km west-northwest of San Fernando City, La Union [2AM OCT 03: 17.7N 116.8E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further while moving across the South China Sea...about 263 km east-southeast of Haikou, China [2AM OCT 04: 19.4N 112.7E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it makes landfall over Leizhou Peninsula in Southern China...traversing the Gulf of Tonkin...about 100 km east-southeast of Mong Cai City, Vietnam [2AM OCT 05: 21.0N 108.8E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Oct 02, 2015
Location of Center: Near 16.0º N Lat 120.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 79 km SE of San Fernando, La Union
Distance 2: 57 km NNE of Tarlac City, Tarlac
Distance 3: 99 km WNW of Baler, Aurora
Distance 4: 170 km NNW of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 64 km NW of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph