Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 015

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 015

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 015
Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Monday 19 October 2015
Next Update: Monday Afternoon, 19 October 2015

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) has maintained its strength while moving northward very slowly...along the beach front areas of Ilocos Sur. The WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Station in Barangay Binauganan-Tarlac City (LPP) has recorded a 24-hr. Rainfall Accumulation of 161.6 mm from 8:00 AM Oct 17 to 8:00 AM Oct. 18.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TY KOPPU (LANDO).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Abra, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan and Nueva Vizcaya - Today through Monday (Oct 19).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija and Ilocos Norte - Today through (Oct 19).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Pampanga, Bulacan, Batangas, Bataan, Cavite, Rizal, Metro Manila, Quirino, Western Isabela and Western Cagayan - Today through Monday (Oct 19).

WINDS

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Pangasinan, La Union and Ilocos Sur - Today until Tuesday morning (Oct 20).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Zambales, Tarlac, Benguet, Abra and Ilocos Norte - Today through Tuesday (Oct 21).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of La Union, Pangasinan, Ilocos Sur and Ilocos Norte - Today until Tuesday (Oct 20)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 19...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Over the southern shores of Ilocos Sur...(near 17.0N 120.3E)
About: 44 km north of San Fernando City, La Union...or 68 km south of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center...Gustiness: 165 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (southwest and west of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 700 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 85 km from the center
Past Movement: North Very Slowly
Forecast Movement: North @ 03 kph
Towards: Ilocos Provinces

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY KOPPU (LANDO) is expected to continue to move northward with very slow speed for the next 24 hours...turning to the north-northeast to northeast on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall move along the shores of Ilocos Sur today (Oct 19) and shall track by Tuesday morning (Oct 20) through Wednesday early morning across Ilocos Norte.

TY KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to gradually weaken during the outlook period...and shall only be a Tropical Storm (TS) on Tuesday early morning. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds weakening to 95 kph on Tuesday early morning (Oct 20)...and decreasing further to 85 kph on Wednesday early morning (Oct 21).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves northward very slowly along the shores of Ilocos Sur...over Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2AM OCT 20: 17.5N 120.4E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING Continues to lose strength as it turns to the northeast across Ilocos Norte...about 44 km east-southeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM OCT 21: 18.3N 121.0E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further as it reemerges over the Babuyan Channel...about 57 km south-southeast of Calayan, Cagayan [2AM OCT 22: 18.8N 121.6E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Oct 19, 2015
Location of Center: Near 17.0º N Lat 120.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 79 km NNW of Baguio City
Distance 2: 111 km N of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 149 km W of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 137 km SSW of Laoag City
Distance 5: 288 km NNW of Metro Manila