Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 010

Super Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 010

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 010
Issued at: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Sunday 18 October 2015
Next Update: Sunday Morning, 18 October 2015

KOPPU (LANDO) becomes a dangerous Super Typhoon as it continues to move slowly westward during the past six hours...approaching the shoreline of Aurora. This cyclone will bring powerful winds and heavy rains across the eastern sections of Northern Luzon today through Sunday. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora, over or very near Casiguran on Sunday morning (Oct 18)...with a Strike Probability of 100 percent.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of STY KOPPU (LANDO).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Southern Cagayan, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Quirino and Isabela - Tonight through Sunday Evening (Oct 18).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Cagayan incl. the Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Ilocos Provinces, Abra, La Union, Pangasinan, Northern Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Islands, and Nueva Ecija - Tonight through Sunday Evening (Oct 18).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Catanduanes, Camarines Provinces, Albay, Rest of Quezon, Marinduque, Batangas, Rest of Zambales, Bataan, Laguna, Cavite, Rizal and Metro Manila - Tonight through Sunday Evening (Oct 18).

WINDS

Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Southern Cagayan, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Quirino and Isabela - Tonight until Sunday Afternoon (Oct 18).

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Southern Cagayan, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Quirino and Isabela - Tonight until Sunday Afternoon (Oct 18).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Most of Cagayan, Rest of Isabela, Eastern Apayao, Kalinga, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Eastern Benguet, Eastern Pangasinan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Northern Bataan, Rizal, Cavite, Metro Manila, Northern Quezon incl. Polillo, Rest of Nueva Ecija, Rest of Quirino, and portions of Camarines Norte - Tonight through Sunday Evening (Oct 18).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Camarines Norte, Northern Camarines Sur (Partido), Northern Catanduanes, Polillo Islands - Today...and along Eastern Cagayan, Eastern Isabela and Aurora - Tonight through Sunday (Oct 18).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 PM PhT today, October 17...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: STY KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Over the westernmost part of the Philippine Sea...near the coast of Aurora (near 16.0N 122.7E)
About: 68 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora...or 120 km east-northeast of Baler, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 220 kph near the center...Gustiness: 280 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (southwest and west of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 750 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 130 km from the center
Past Movement: West @ 14 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest to Northwest @ 08 kph
Towards: Aurora
Closest Point of Approach (CPA) to Aurora: Sunday Morning [from 5am-11am PhT]

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

STY KOPPU (LANDO) will continue with its slow west to west-northwest track for the next 24 hours...turning sharply northwest to north-northwest for the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall approach the coast of Aurora through early Sunday morning towards Aurora and shall make landfall over or very near Casiguran by Sunday Mid or late morning (Oct 18). On Monday evening (Oct 19), KOPPU (LANDO) shall be over rugged terrain of Mid-Central Cagayan...very near Tuguegarao City, Cagayan.

STY KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to start to weaken during the next 24 hours and shall continue to weaken rapidly thereafter as it interacts with the mountain ranges of Sierra Madre when it makes landfall over the area and traverses the land mass of Northern Luzon. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds weakening to 175 kph on Sunday evening (Oct 18)...and decreasing further to 100 kph on Monday evening (Oct 19).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY EVENING: Rapidly weakens as it sharply turns northwestward across Northeastern Ifugao...about 24 km west-northwest of Cauayan City, Isabela [8PM OCT 18: 17.0N 121.5E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY EVENING: Just a Strong Tropical Storm as it moves northward across Mid-Western Cagayan...about 35 km north-northwest of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [8PM OCT 19: 17.9N 121.6E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY EVENING: Continues to weaken while creeping across Northern Cagayan...about 11 km south of Aparri, Cagayan [8PM OCT 20: 18.3N 121.7E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat Oct 17, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 16.0º N Lat 122.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 116 km SSE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 146 km SE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 212 km NNW of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 4: 229 km ESE of Baguio City
Distance 5: 232 km NE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph