Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 018

Tropical Storm KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 018

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 018
Issued at: 3:15 AM PhT (07:15 GMT) Tuesday 20 October 2015
Next Update: Tuesday Mid-Morning, 20 October 2015

Tropical Storm (TS) KOPPU [LANDO] still weakening as it drifted northeastward closer to the shoreline of Ilocos Norte. Strong winds with light to moderate rains will continue to prevail across Western Luzon especially Ilocos Region.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TS KOPPU (LANDO).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Benguet, La Union, and Pangasinan - Tonight through Tuesday evening (Oct 20).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northern Zambales, Northern Tarlac, Northwestern Nueva Ecija, Western Nueva Vizcaya, Western Ifugao, Western Mt. Province, Western Kalinga and Western Apayao - Tonight through Tuesday evening (Oct 20).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Southern Zambales, Southern Tarlac, Portion of Western Nueva Ecija, Portion of Central Nueva Vizcaya, Eastern Ifugao, Eastern Mt. Province, Eastern Kalinga and Eastern Apayao - Today through Tuesday evening (Oct 20).

WINDS

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Pangasinan, La Union and Ilocos Sur - Today until Tuesday morning (Oct 20).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Zambales, Tarlac, Benguet, Abra and Ilocos Norte - Today through Tuesday morning (Oct 20).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of La Union, Pangasinan, Ilocos Sur and Ilocos Norte - Today until Tuesday (Oct 20)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, October 19...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Near the central shores of Ilocos Norte...(near 18.3N 120.3E)
About: 34 km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte...or 62 km southwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center...Gustiness: 130 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (west of the center): 100 to 450 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 580 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 75 km from the center
Past Movement: North-Northeast @ 06 kph
Forecast Movement: Northeast to East-Northeast @ 05 kph
Towards: Ilocos Norte-Batanes Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS KOPPU (LANDO) is expected to turn northeast within the next 24 hours...then north-northeastward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse the northernmost coastline of Ilocos Norte through Tuesday evening (Oct 20) and shall emerge over the Babuyan Channel east of Calayan Island on Wednesday evening (Oct 21).

TS KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to weaken further within the next 24 to 48 hours as it interacts with the terrain of Northwestern Luzon. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds weakening to 85 kph on Tuesday evening (Oct 20)...remaining with that intensity through 48 hours.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

TUESDAY EVENING: traverses the northern tip of Ilocos Norte as it weakens slightly and emerges over the Babuyan Channel...about 57 km east-northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [8PM OCT 20: 18.7N 121.3E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY EVENING Passing east of Calayan Island with a north-northeast track...about 74 km east-southeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan [8PM OCT 21: 19.2N 122.2E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
THURSDAY EVENING: Passing near to the east of Batanes...still maintaining its strength while moving across the Bashi Channel...about 76 km northeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM OCT 22: 21.0N 122.5E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Tue Oct 20, 2015
Location of Center: Near 18.3º N Lat 120.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 79 km NNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 2: 189 km N of San Fernando City, La Union
Distance 3: 168 km SW of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 4: 297 km SSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 418 km NNW of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph