Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 016

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 016

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (05:30 GMT) Monday 19 October 2015
Next Update: Monday Evening, 19 October 2015

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) has maintained its strength as it continues to move northward with slightly increasing forward speed along the shores of Ilocos Sur.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TY KOPPU (LANDO).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Abra, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan and Nueva Vizcaya - Today through Tuesday evening (Oct 20).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija and Ilocos Norte - Today through Tuesday evening (Oct 20).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Pampanga, Bulacan, Batangas, Bataan, Cavite, Rizal, Metro Manila, Quirino, Western Isabela and Western Cagayan - Today through Tuesday evening (Oct 20).

WINDS

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Pangasinan, La Union and Ilocos Sur - Today until Tuesday morning (Oct 20).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Zambales, Tarlac, Benguet, Abra and Ilocos Norte - Today through Tuesday morning (Oct 20).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of La Union, Pangasinan, Ilocos Sur and Ilocos Norte - Today until Tuesday (Oct 20)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 19...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Over the northern shores of Ilocos Sur...(near 17.6N 120.3E)
About: 111 km north of San Fernando City, La Union...or 11 km west of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center...Gustiness: 150 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (southwest and west of the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 700 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 85 km from the center
Past Movement: North @ 11 kph
Forecast Movement: Northeast @ 06 kph
Towards: Ilocos Norte-Abra Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY KOPPU (LANDO) is expected to turn north-northeast to northeastward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse along the border of Ilocos Norte and Abra through Tuesday morning (Oct 20) and shall reemerge over the Babuyan Channel in the afternoon.

TY KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to weaken into a Tropical Storm (TS) within the next 24 hours. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds weakening to 95 kph on Tuesday morning (Oct 20)...and decreasing further to 85 kph on Wednesday morning (Oct 21).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves northeastward slowly along Ilocos Norte-Abra border...about 42 km west-southwest of Aparri, Cagayan [8AM OCT 20: 18.3N 121.3E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY MORNING Continues to lose strength as it reemerges over the Babuyan Channel...about 62 km east-southeast of Calayan, Cagayan [8AM OCT 21: 19.0N 122.0E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
THURSDAY MORNING: Reintensifies as it turns north towards Bashi Channel ...about 25 km southeast of Basco, Batanes [8AM OCT 22: 20.2N 122.1E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon Oct 19, 2015
Location of Center: Near 17.6º N Lat 120.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 137 km NNW of Baguio City
Distance 2: 178 km N of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 168 km WNW of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 74 km SSW of Laoag City
Distance 5: 353 km NNW of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph