Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 017

Tropical Storm KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 017

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 017
Issued at: 7:45 PM PhT (11:45 GMT) Monday 19 October 2015
Next Update: Tuesday Early Morning, 20 October 2015

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) has weakened into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it drifted slowly north-northwest parallel to the coast of Ilocos Provinces. Rains and winds still expected to be experienced along Western Luzon particularly Ilocos Norte and Sur. A WPF Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Bauang, La Union (980748) has recorded wind gusts of 98 km/hr blowing from the West at 6:30 PM today.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS KOPPU (LANDO).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Benguet, La Union, and Pangasinan - Tonight through Tuesday evening (Oct 20).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northern Zambales, Northern Tarlac, Northwestern Nueva Ecija, Western Nueva Vizcaya, Western Ifugao, Western Mt. Province, Western Kalinga and Western Apayao - Tonight through Tuesday evening (Oct 20).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Southern Zambales, Southern Tarlac, Portion of Western Nueva Ecija, Portion of Central Nueva Vizcaya, Eastern Ifugao, Eastern Mt. Province, Eastern Kalinga and Eastern Apayao - Today through Tuesday evening (Oct 20).

WINDS

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Pangasinan, La Union and Ilocos Sur - Today until Tuesday morning (Oct 20).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Zambales, Tarlac, Benguet, Abra and Ilocos Norte - Today through Tuesday morning (Oct 20).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of La Union, Pangasinan, Ilocos Sur and Ilocos Norte - Today until Tuesday (Oct 20)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 19...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Near the southern shores of Ilocos Norte...(near 18.0N 120.1E)
About: 57 km west-southwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte...or 55 km northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 110 kph near the center...Gustiness: 140 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (south and west of the center): 100 to 450 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 580 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 75 km from the center
Past Movement: North-Northwest @ 08 kph
Forecast Movement: North-Northeast to Northeast @ 04 kph
Towards: Ilocos Norte-Batanes Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS KOPPU (LANDO) is expected to turn north-northeast to northeastward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse the coastline of Ilocos Norte and Abra through Tuesday afternoon or evening (Oct 20) and shall reemerge over the Babuyan Channel near Calayan Island on Wednesday afternoon (Oct 21).

TS KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to weaken further within the next 24 to 48 hours as it interacts with the terrain of Northwestern Luzon. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds weakening to 85 kph on Tuesday afternoon (Oct 20)...and decreasing further to 75 kph on Wednesday afternoon (Oct 21).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Just along the shoreline of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte as it drifts slowly northeastward...continues to weaken...about 11 km north-northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2PM OCT 20: 18.6N 120.7E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON Slightly weaker while moving slowly over the Babuyan Channel...about 33 km south of Calayan, Cagayan [2PM OCT 21: 19.0N 121.5E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Passing near the east of Batanes...reintensifies slightly as it moves across the Bashi Channel...about 66 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM OCT 22: 20.3N 122.6E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon Oct 19, 2015
Location of Center: Near 18.0º N Lat 120.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 92 km SW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 157 km NNW of San Fernando City, La Union
Distance 3: 175 km WNW of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 186 km NNW of Baguio City
Distance 5: 393 km NNW of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph