Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 021

Tropical Storm KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 021

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 021
Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Tuesday 20 October 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Morning, 21 October 2015

Tropical Storm (TS) KOPPU [LANDO] has continued losing strength over the past 6 hours...decaying further while over the Balintang Channel. . Decaying rains plus gusty winds will continue to be experienced across the northwestern section of Northern Luzon especially Ilocos Norte.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TS KOPPU (LANDO).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Ilocos Sur, Abra and Ilocos Norte - Today through Wednesday morning (Oct 21).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): La Union, Western Benguet, Westernmost part of Mt. Province, Western Kalinga, Western Apayao and Northwesternmost part of Cagayan - Today through Wednesday morning (Oct 21).

WINDS

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Coastal areas of Ilocos Norte - Until Tonight (Oct 20).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 20...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Over the western part of the Balintang Channel...(near 19.3N 120.8E)
About: 73 km west of Calayan Island, Cagayan...or 89 km north of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (southwest of the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 565 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: Northeast @ 11 kph
Forecast Movement: East-Northeast @ 08 kph
Towards: Babuyan-Balintang Channel

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS KOPPU (LANDO) is expected to move east-northeastward slowly for the next 24 hours...returning back to northeastward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse the Babuyan-Balintang Channel tonight through Wednesday morning (Oct 21)...and shall move across the North Philippine Sea, farther away from Extreme Northern Luzon on Thursday (Oct 22).

TS KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to weaken in 24 hours...and maintaining as a minimal TS through the remainder of the outlook period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds weakening to 65 kph on Wednesday afternoon (Oct 21) and maintaining its intesity by Thursday afternoon (Oct 22).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to decay and weaken as it turns east-northeastward across the Balintang Channel...about 113 km south-southeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM OCT 21: 19.6N 122.5E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength as it tracks back to the northeast across the eastern part of the Bashi Channel...about 198 km east of Basco, Batanes [2PM OCT 22: 20.4N 123.9E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Decaying further as it downgrades into a Tropical Depression (TD)...traversing across the North Philippine Sea...about 278 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM OCT 23: 21.1N 124.6E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue Oct 20, 2015
Location of Center: Near 19.3º N Lat 120.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 124 km NNE of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 138 km NW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 176 km SW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 197 km SSW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 523 km NNW of Metro Manila