Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 022

Tropical Storm KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 022

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 022
Issued at: 8:15 AM PhT (00:15 GMT) Wednesday 21 October 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Evening, 21 October 2015

KOPPU [LANDO] just barely a Tropical Storm as it continues to weaken and decay over the Balintang Channel while drifting slowly eastward. Its dissipating rains plus gusty winds will continue to be experienced across Extreme Coastal areas of Northern Luzon particularly Calayan and Babuyan Islands and Ilocos Norte.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TS KOPPU (LANDO).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Ilocos Norte and portions of Northwestern Cagyan - Today through Thursday morning (Oct 22).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Ilocos Sur, Western Kalinga, Abra, and Western Mountain Province - Today through Thursday morning (Oct 22).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 21...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Over the central part of the Balintang Channel...(near 19.3N 121.8E)
About: 31 km east of Calayan Island, Cagayan...or 98 km north-northwest of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (southwest of the center): 25 to 100 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 565 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: East @ 10 kph
Forecast Movement: East-Northeast @ 04 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS KOPPU (LANDO) is expected to move slowly east-northeastward slowly for the next 24 hours...returning back to northeastward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel today through early Thursday morning (Oct 22)...and shall move across the North Philippine Sea, farther away from Extreme Northern Luzon on Friday (Oct 23).

TS KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to continue dissipating over the open seas within the next 24 hours...becoming just a weak Tropical Depression (TD) by early Thursday morning...and decaying into an area of low pressure on Friday early morning (Oct 23). The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds weakening to 55 kph on Thursday early morning (Oct 22) and weakening to LPA strength of just 35 kph by early Friday morning (Oct 23).

The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to decay and weaken as it turns east-northeastward across the eastern part of the Balintang Channel...about 128 km south-southeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM OCT 22: 19.5N 122.6E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipating into an area of remnant low pressure over the North Philippine Sea...about 209 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM OCT 23: 20.7N 124.0E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Oct 21, 2015
Location of Center: Near 19.3º N Lat 121.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 101 km NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 135 km S of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 138 km ENE of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 4: 167 km S of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 539 km NNE of Metro Manila